Tuesday, November 20, 2007

• 2008 Election Outlook: Arizona

  This article is part of an ongoing series previewing the 2008 elections in each of the 50 states.  We will be progressing through the states alphabetically by state postal abbreviation.

   

  State: Arizona

  Electoral Votes: 10

   

  Federal Races

   

  President:  This state should be a GOP hold, even though the Southwest continues to trend more Democratic.  George W. Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004 with 50% and 54% respectively.  Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 with 46% and George H.W. Bush won in 1992 with 38%.

   

  CD-1:  The retirement of Rep. Rick Renzi (R) has prompted several candidates to jump into the race to replace him.  Renzi only landed 51% of the vote in 2006 and this will be among the Democrat’s top targets in 2008.

   

  I rate this race as a Toss Up.

   

  CD-3: Rep. John Shadegg (R) is facing a challenge from Bob Lord, who has raised a significant amount of money thus far.

   

  Nevertheless, I rate this race as Likely Republican.

   

  CD-5: Freshman Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) will have to work hard to defend his seat in this Republican-leaning district.  Republican fundraising woes should give Mitchell an advantage her.

   

  I rate this race as Leans Democratic.

   

  CD-8: Freshman Rep. Gabby Giffords (D), who has more than a million in the bank, should be able to hold off a challenge from state Senate President Tim Bee (R) in the district right on the Mexican American border.

   

  I rate this race as Democratic Favored.

   

  State Races

   

  State Legislature:

   

  Republicans hold a small majority in the House, 33-27.  Arizona has a unique system in which two Representatives represent each district.  Five of the 30 districts contain split-party representation.   In the Senate, Republicans hold a 17-13 majority.  Given the trends in other state legislature, it would not be surprising to see the Democrats gain more seats or even take control in 2008.

   

  Resources (not exhaustive):

   

  www.thegreenpapers.com (Election Information)

  www.uselectionatlas.org (Presidential)

  www.dcpoliticalreport.com (Election Information)

  www.cqpolitics.com (Election Information)

  www.cookpolitical.com (Congressional Race Ratings)

  rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com  (Congressional Race Ratings)

   

  Posted by D. Price

  • 11:10 AM
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