Wednesday, November 21, 2007

• 2008 Election Outlook: California

  This article is part of an ongoing series previewing the 2008 elections in each of the 50 states.  We will be progressing through the states alphabetically by state postal abbreviation.

   

  State: California

  Electoral Votes: 55

   

  Federal Races

   

  President:  One might think that California is a solid blue state, but consider history.  Republicans won six straight election cycles beginning with Richard Nixon in 1968.  Gerald Ford (1976), Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984), and George H.W. Bush (1988) all enjoyed electoral victories.  Suffice to say, if the Republicans are able to win in California, it goes a long way to helping them become President.

   

  In recent times, the state has trended more blue.  Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996 with 46% and 51%, respectively.  Al Gore won in 2000 with 53%.  John Kerry won in 2004 with 54%.  Considering all of the current GOP candidates, there’s only one who could really put California back in play, Rudy Giuliani.  The more socially moderate Giuliani has the potential of attracting California independents who like his strong positions on the War on Terror.

   

  House: One would think that with 53 congressional districts, many seats would be in play.  The reality is, most Representatives are unopposed or opposed by second or third tier candidates.  The few contentious seats are usually the result of retirements or deaths.

   

  CD-4:  Whether scandal-tinged Rep. John Doolittle (R) retires or not, this seat is a strong candidate for a Democratic pick-up.  Doolittle has been linked to the Jack Abramoff.  Doolittle won with just 49% of the vote in 2006.  Democrat Charlie Brown, who secured 46% of the vote in 2006, is running an extremely viable campaign, having already raised over $500,000.  He will be a challenge regardless of who runs against him.

   

  I rate this race as a Toss Up.

   

  CD-8: Nobody’s favorite activist Cindy Sheehan (I) is running against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D).  Whether or not Sheehan actually follows through on this is another story.  Sheehan is running because Pelosi has failed to bring up articles of impeachment against President Bush.  While I do not think Sheehan’s candidacy gains much traction, even in the far-left San Francisco district, she may at least make the race more…interesting.

   

  I rate this race as Likely Democratic.

   

  CD-11: Freshman Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) will have to work hard to defend his seat in this Republican-leaning district.  This is a GOP target, so expect this to be a fight.  McNerney won with only 53% of the vote in 2006.  GOP Businessman and Equalization Board Chairman Dean Andal is the challenger.

   

  I rate this race as Leans Democratic.

   

  CD-50: After a bloody primary and general election last fall, Rep. Brian Bilray should be able to hold off a challenge from Attorney Nick Leibham.

   

  I rate this race as Republican Favored.

   

  CD-52: This race is to replace retiring Rep. Duncan Hunter, who is running for President.  What is most interesting about this race is that his son, Duncan Duane Hunter, is running to replace him.  That’s only unique when you take into account that the younger Hunter is on active duty in Afghanistan for the U.S. Marine Corps!  It is likely that Hunter will be serving there when election day rolls around.  Three other Republicans are running.  The district is fairly conservative.  Whoever wins the primary will likely win the general election.

   

  I rate this seat as Likely Republican.

   

  State Races

   

  State Legislature:

   

  Democrats hold a 48-32 majority in the State Assembly, the lower house of the legislature.  In the Senate, the margin is 25-15.  Republicans have picked up a small handful of seats since 2000, but the majority is not likely to switch anytime soon.

   

  Resources (not exhaustive):

   

  www.thegreenpapers.com (Election Information)

  www.uselectionatlas.org (Presidential)

  www.dcpoliticalreport.com (Election Information)

  www.cqpolitics.com (Election Information)

  www.cookpolitical.com (Congressional Race Ratings)rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com  (Congressional Race Ratings)

   

  Posted by D. Price

  • 9:22 AM
  • 2 eprops
  • 2 comments