Tuesday, November 27, 2007

  • 2008 Election Outlook: Connecticut

    This article is part of an ongoing series previewing the 2008 elections in each of the 50 states.  We will be progressing through the states alphabetically by state postal abbreviation.

     

    State: Connecticut

    Electoral Votes: 7

     

    Federal Races

     

    President:  This state has gone blue since Bill Clinton won it in 1992 with 42% of the vote.  Clinton won it again in 1996 with 52%.  Al Gore won the state in 2000 with 55% of the vote and John Kerry won with 54% in 2004.  This state is a solid hold for whomever the 2008 Democratic nominee is.

     

    CD-2:  Freshman Rep. Joe Courtney (D) narrowly defeated former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) in the closest House race of 2006.  After an automatic recount, Courtney won by an 83 vote margin.  Despite the closeness of this race, this district leans Democratic (I lived there for half of my life) and former Groton Navy Base Commander Sean Sullivan (R) has a lot of work to catch up to the coffers that Courtney has built.

     

    I rate this race as Leans Democratic.

     

    CD-4: Moderate Rep. Chris Shays (R) always faces a tough Democratic challenger, so there’s no reason to assume that his 2008 race will be any easier.  Shays won by 3% over challenger Diane Farrell (D).  Shays will face Rhodes Scholar and Business Executive Jim Himes (D), who has already raised over $600,000.

     

    I rate this race as Toss-up.

     

    CD-5: Freshman Rep. Chris Murphy (D) was able to oust longtime Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) in a nasty general election fight in 2006.  Moderate state Sen. David Cappiello (R) now takes up the fight for the Republicans.

     

    I rate this race as Leans Democratic.

     

    State Races

     

    State Legislature:

     

    Democrats hold a 107-44 advantage in the Connecticut House of Representatives.  Democrats hold a smaller advantage in the Senate, 24-12.  Democrats are not likely to lose control of either house any time soon. 

     

    Resources (not exhaustive):

     

    www.thegreenpapers.com (Election Information)

    www.uselectionatlas.org (Presidential)

    www.dcpoliticalreport.com (Election Information)

    www.cqpolitics.com (Election Information)

    www.cookpolitical.com (Congressional Race Ratings)

    rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com  (Congressional Race Ratings)

     

    Posted by D. Price

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