With Thompson out, who will gain the most as a result? From the results in South Carolina exit polls reveal that 47% of Thompson's supporters identified themselves as "very conservative" and 50% of them identified themselves as evangelicals. Overall, Thompson placed second in his attraction of the very conservative vote with 22% to Huckabee's 41%. (For more on the numbers, see Behind The Numbers). Since Huckabee has received strong support from very conservative voters and evangelicals, it would seem that Huckabee would be the obvious beneficiary of Thompson's exit, with Romney and McCain benefiting to a lesser extent.
In Florida,however, it is not so simple. Huckabee is running low on cash, so he has scaled back his campaign Florida. He is not advertising in the state and his only scheduled stops for the week are a few events at airports. Huckabee has decided to focus instead on Super Tuesday states in the south that have a high evangelical population (Florida's population is only 25% evangelical).
Without Huckabee in Florida, where will former Thompson supporters go? The consensus appears to be that they will largely gravitate towards Romney. Given a choice between McCain, Romney, and Giuliani, many conservatives will view as the only viable conservative left in this three-way race. Romney is vigorously campaigning in Florida for the conservative vote.
Where Thompson's supporters ultimately go may be partially determined by Thompson himself. He is an old friend of McCain's and chaired McCain's campaign in 2000. Until he began his own campaign, Thompson made calls on McCain's behalf. He has only mildly criticized McCain over the course of this campaign. They disagree, however, on judges and immigration, so an endorsement is by no means certain.
Posted by D. Turner
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