Wednesday, May 07, 2008

• And the Impasse Goes Marching On...

  
  
  

  On Tuesday, May 6^th, North Carolina and Indiana went to the polls. As of Tuesday morning many observers were anticipating a narrow win by Obama in North Carolina with a decisive win by Clinton in Indiana. Instead the opposite occurred. Obama won North Carolina with a lead of 14 percent (56-42 percent). With 99 percent of precincts reporting, it appears that Clinton narrowly won Indiana by 2 percent (51-49 percent).

  Tuesday’s results effectively end Clinton’s chances at obtaining the Democratic nomination. To gain the lead now, she would have to obtain 70 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries of West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana, and Puerto Rico. It is anticipated that Clinton will at least win West Virginia and Kentucky. Clinton would also have to obtain 70% of the remaining superdelegates. With the states remaining being relatively small, the main battleground will be convincing the remaining 278 superdelegates to support Clinton. If they break for Obama, Clinton will have to play her last major card, trying to get Michigan and Florida’s delegates seated to regain some lost ground.

  While last night’s primaries were split, Obama’s near tie in Indiana combined with a major win in North Carolina gave him an air of inevitability. The primaries also showed that Obama can weather major negative attacks without major loss. While the primaries may drag on until June 20^th, it is likely that Tuesday night drove home the last nail in the coffin of the Clinton campaign.

  Posted by D. Turner
  

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