| | NOT JUST A RECESSION, BUT THE 2ND U.S. GREAT DEPRESSION
I wish I didn't read so much, or remember so much, or know so much about the economy. Maybe then I could be in denial too, just like almost everybody else when it comes to the days ahead. Especially Wall Street. The CEO of Countrywide said a few weeks ago that they'll return to profitability in the next quarter, and the stock exploded. Today it traded at around 8 bucks per share. Market watchers watched massive crowds storm into stores on black Friday's early morning sales, and concluded that consumer sentiment probably was still strong. WRONG. There is a credit crisis that nobody knows how far it will reach.
I don't want to be right. I wish all of the absolutely incredibly visible obvious fundamentals weren't so easy to see. And I wish that there would be some way I could reconcile how the U.S. is going to get out of the credit mess it is in. But here are the undeniable warning signs. Oh and before y'all call me Chicken Little, I'm only sharing the thoughts on my mind on this blog, and if you've been reading it for a while, you'll know that I have a good track record. Back when real estate was in multiple offers, I said that it was on the verge of collapse. I remember sitting in the Wells Fargo branch and watching a mortgage broker pace back and forth at the number of ARM's she knowingly had nice families sign, only to know that in summer of 2007 these rates were going to reset, and that those people would not be able to cover their loans. I wrote about this in detail. And when summer of this year hit, so did the wave of the mortgage collapse. The U.S. has been spending more money than it has taken in for over five years. Same with consumer credit. In order to pay for the massive war costs and budget deficit, those debts need to get paid, period. We are borrowing from foreign investors in the form of Treasury Bills. In order to pay them back, we either have to produce more (economy has to grow) or we have to print more money, which will cause inflation. Printing more money causes inflation, and having countries not trust the stability STABILITY of the government causes them to want to invest somewhere safer. That means that we have to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve injected 2 TRILLION dollars into the money supply to help the credit crisis, and that was woohoo - for a few days, and then the market went into an official correction. With the emergence of India and China, the U.S. will take a far greater hit than other countries that have exportable resources and strong currencies. The countries who previously invested in the U.S. will take their money out before the collapse - in fact- causing the collapse. This will create a situation of a country with a huge amount of money to borrow, with nobody to lend to it because it has bad credit. If it is able to borrow money, it will be at much higher interest rates which will only compound that debt in a country in a growing, rapid recession and with collapsing house values. $2 Trillion in subprime assets has completely vanished. This is greater than 1/5th of the entire amount the country produces in a year - and that's only subprime loans. That hasn't even begun to touch foreclosure losses, triggered by lowering home values (remember that when foreclosures hit the market, this reduces the 'comparable' value of homes that lenders use to gauge how much to mortgage a property for) which will in turn cause even lower home values, which will cause lower comps which will cause lower home prices until real estate prices in the U.S. to hit 1/3 of today's prices. Imagine if that were the case. If every home you knew was worth 1/3 what it is today. What would your neighbors do, having a loan triple the value of their asset, in a collapsing economy? I wish the U.S. exercised more fiscal restraint in the Greenspan and Bush years. But it didn't, and nobody listened, and nobody paid attention, and everybody thought they could live forever on borrowed money, borrowing more without giving a thought as to when/how these loans were going to be paid back. I'm sorry to be a downer, but you heard it here and I'll say it. There is a massive collapse coming to the U.S. economy, and I wish I knew how it could recover. The best thing the U.S. has going for it is ownership rights, which is why it has led the world in practically everything. But with no investment dollars to be had to build/grow these companies. I don't know. |
| | Posted 11/26/2007 10:01 PM - 428 views - 30 comments
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